Population Decline

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Levike
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Population Decline

Postby Levike » 2013-06-07, 17:38

In 1990 the population of my country was around 23 million
nowadays in 2013 is almost a little above 19 million.

So we have lost more than 3 million people in just 20 years which is a serious problem.

The majority of them went abroad in search of a better life
especially to Italy and Spain because of the similar languages
and the remaining people just won't make any children.

So suggestions on how to resolve this little problem?
Nem egy nap alatt épült Buda vára.

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linguoboy
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Re: Population Decline

Postby linguoboy » 2013-06-07, 17:43

Levente.Maier wrote:So suggestions on how to resolve this little problem?

What makes it a "problem"?
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Re: Population Decline

Postby Levike » 2013-06-07, 17:50

linguoboy wrote:What makes it a "problem"?

1. Well the current working force is old and we don't have people to replace them.

2. And we don't have enough people to pay for the pensions of the old generation.

3. And the worst is that we have a lack of doctors.
Last edited by Levike on 2013-06-07, 18:39, edited 1 time in total.
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IpseDixit

Re: Population Decline

Postby IpseDixit » 2013-06-07, 18:15

Well I think the government should try to fix the causes that led to such a massive emigration. Which is not an easy task in such a deep economic downturn. Moreover, they should try to create an environment aimed at stimulating birth rate, which is not easy either inasmuch it requires considerable investments.
Last edited by IpseDixit on 2013-06-07, 18:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Population Decline

Postby IpseDixit » 2013-06-07, 18:27

linguoboy wrote:
Levente.Maier wrote:So suggestions on how to resolve this little problem?

What makes it a "problem"?


Well, for example if there is no birth growth, the GDP is much less likely to grow since there would be less workforce and very probably less entrepreneurial initiative, if the GDP does not grow, debt-to-GDP ratio goes up. Also, if there is less workforce, it will be much more difficult to pay pensions.

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Re: Population Decline

Postby linguoboy » 2013-06-07, 18:41

Levente.Maier wrote:
linguoboy wrote:What makes it a "problem"?

1. Well the current working force is old and we don't have people to replace them.
2. And we don't have enough people to pay for the retirement of the old generation.
3. And the worst is that we have a lack of doctors.

Doctors can be recruited from elsewhere. This has been done in many societies over the years.

The other two problems sound like they are more to do with the structure of your industry and your system of public pensions than with population decline per se. Perhaps there are simply some issues which can only be dealt with very badly on the level of nation-states, if at all.
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Re: Population Decline

Postby Levike » 2013-06-07, 19:04

Well, we don't really have immigration to fill the gaps.
LIke 40.000 immigrants which is very low.

The number of the active workforce is low circa 5 million
and the number of the retired population is circa 4 million.

And with the situation of our economy in general
I doubt we can ask those people to pay more for the pensions.
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Re: Population Decline

Postby Tenebrarum » 2013-06-07, 19:45

linguoboy wrote:What makes it a "problem"?

Not the population decline per se, but the brain drain to Western Europe. But that can't really be countered.
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Re: Population Decline

Postby JackFrost » 2013-06-07, 20:05

Do you know that even in the West, the public pension is only a basic source of income that at least guarantees a roof over your head and a fridge full of food? It's really not meant to maintain the pre-retirement standard of living, especially if you come from the middle class. Retirees from the middle class tend to live on other sources of income (private pensions, saving plans, etc.). Romania seems to have some million of working-age people who aren't working for some reason. You must see why and under what conditions that would make it tempting for them to work (it'd bring more money into the state's treasury and economy). And how to curb the brain drain too.
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Re: Population Decline

Postby Levo » 2013-06-10, 9:13

Hungary was the first country - along with former East Germany, where population started to decline naturally in 1979. Simply: birth rates became lower than death rates.
Note that, there was no significant emigration or immigration until 1990.

I have been raised and lived all through my life that it is natural that population is decreasing. When I got to know later that in some Western-European countries there are still natural increases, even despite immigration, I was shocked.
We had a population of 10,7 million in 1980 and now have 9,9.

When even working-age population doesn't have a capital to start a successful enterprise, then how do you expect it from a pensioner? Not even mentioning horrible health-conditions. (Hungary is also the fattest country in EU according to latest statistics).
I was shocked on that too, when I went to other countries, that people above 60-70 can still walk without pain, and even smile.
Here it is totally natural, that after 50 your health deteriorates very quickly and by the age of 60 everyone has to take some very strong medicines and has at least one serious health issue.

To be honest, I can tell only one relative of mine, above 50 who doesn't have a serious health-issue any-more, since he had been operated with it already. :P Taking into consideration my parents, aunts, uncles, etc everyone is sick. My grandfather's brother who is still alive, has by now both of his legs amputated because of diabetes.
Also, I don't know anyone above 50 who is not longing for quitting work for pension at last. Which is sad.

First some very serious health-defending and conserving programme should be started, and in 20-30 years maybe we'll have at least the basics for old people to be able to work at least.

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Re: Population Decline

Postby Levike » 2013-06-10, 15:53

Does it happen in Hungary that someone is retired but still works?

I know some people who are 70, retired, but still working
because they want some extra money or because they are just booored.
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Re: Population Decline

Postby Hoogstwaarschijnlijk » 2013-06-11, 8:13

I think this is a quite interesting (though worrying) issue.

Levo wrote:
First some very serious health-defending and conserving programme should be started, and in 20-30 years maybe we'll have at least the basics for old people to be able to work at least.


I wouldn't be so sure if this would really help. Because in the Netherlands 'vergrijzing' (literally it means that there will be more grey) is considered to be a huge problem. It means that there are and will be more old people than there will be young people. Just like in Romenia we won't have enough people to pay for their pensions, but unlike Romenia this seems mostly a problem for the future. There are a lot of old people already, but well, at this moment so many young people can't find a job that we'll just be glad when people between the 60 and 70 will quit their job, I guess.
Anyway, what I wanted to say: if you have better healt conditions, if people are more healthy, than the problem will mostly just increase, right? Because if people stay healthy longer, they will also live longer, so there will just be more and more old people, because 80 or 90 won't be surprisingly old ages, while people with the age of 70 are still very often not healthy enough to work (it depends on the work you do and other things, but still). And the costs of the health care are just growing and growing. Though they now seem to cut in it, but that's stupid too, because surely you can't expect from the children of these people (who are between 40 and 60 or so) to take care of their parents while they need to work themselves too and while they may still have to take care of their own children...

Lately someone in the newspaper presented it as a solution that someone had hired three personal Polish girls (but Romenian or Hungarian would be fine too) to take care of her. Well, maybe we should also think about what that does for Romenia and Hungary then.
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Re: Population Decline

Postby Varislintu » 2013-06-11, 8:17

Levo wrote:(Hungary is also the fattest country in EU according to latest statistics).


I've heard CoBB mention this, too. But it's strange, because in Budapest the people you see around don't generally look very fat. Are the fatter people in the rural areas? Or perhaps they just stay closer to home (like older people) and don't walk around in the capital's center.

On topic: In Finland the fertility rate is 1.80, which is high in Europe, but not of course the 2.2 that we would need to renew our population in a stable manner.
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Re: Population Decline

Postby mōdgethanc » 2013-06-11, 18:17

Hoogstwaarschijnlijk wrote:'vergrijzing' (literally it means that there will be more grey) is considered to be a huge problem
We need to start using "forgreying" in English.

I would say that shrinking populations aren't a big problem but for the younger generations that get stuck paying for the elderly who are waiting to die. There's also the loss of productivity with a smaller workforce to think about. Since we don't want unchecked growth either, aiming for replacement level seems like the best choice.

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Re: Population Decline

Postby Levo » 2013-06-12, 9:37

Varislintu wrote:
Levo wrote:(Hungary is also the fattest country in EU according to latest statistics).


I've heard CoBB mention this, too. But it's strange, because in Budapest the people you see around don't generally look very fat. Are the fatter people in the rural areas? Or perhaps they just stay closer to home (like older people) and don't walk around in the capital's center.


Varislintu, I feel myself as well a tourist in the capital's centre. About every 3rd person can speak Hungarian over there. It means, the rest are tourists or businessmen and other foreigners renting a flat in the centre.
It is so ultimately expensive, there is just nothing to do there for local people. I mean most of the part inner from the greater ringroand (4-6 tram) I even tell this pretty often to my mother that in downtown Budapest, there are the beautiful and wealthy people (mostly tourists), and as you are getting further from it, the more Hungarians and the more average people you are starting to see.

People you see in the city centre in Budapest are mostly not Hungarian, and those who are, are not the wage-earner type having no money for normal food and time for doing leisure and sports.

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Re: Population Decline

Postby Levo » 2013-06-12, 9:49

Levente.Maier wrote:Does it happen in Hungary that someone is retired but still works?

I know some people who are 70, retired, but still working
because they want some extra money or because they are just booored.

It only happens with high-positioned people here. Like director of a school, police department or other institutions, government officials. Or those few who run their own (family) business. Otherwise, it is very rare, and I'm not surprised at it, having 12% unemployment rate.
The topic is usually the complainment that "I still have to work x years, though my dick is out of it already"

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Re: Population Decline

Postby Levo » 2013-06-12, 9:55

Hoogstwaarschijnlijk wrote:I think this is a quite interesting (though worrying) issue.

Lately someone in the newspaper presented it as a solution that someone had hired three personal Polish girls (but Romenian or Hungarian would be fine too) to take care of her. Well, maybe we should also think about what that does for Romenia and Hungary then.

Hoogstwaarschijnlijk, internet advertisements, newspapers and other ads in Hungary are full of jobs abroad for nurses in private homes and elderly homes in the Netherlands, Austria, UK and Germany. Sometimes any kind of qualification in healthcare is not even needed, just go.
Those are the jobs not even Hungarian emigrants want to do, and experiences from people working abroad in this field, are usually not too good.

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Re: Population Decline

Postby linguoboy » 2013-06-12, 16:09

So far no one has mentioned the role of remittances from those working abroad in keeping poorer countries afloat. According to the most recent figures I can find, Rumania is currently on a par with Brazil in the total value of these despite the fact that its economy is a twelfth the size.

Of course, if the root causes of decline are fertility rates rather than outmigration, then this is a stopgap measure at best. Destination countries for migrants in Europe are gradually improving their naturalisation policies so that these immigrants are more likely to become citizens, thus weakening their ties (financial and otherwise) to their (or their parents') countries of origin.
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