Obstacles of Chinese being the global lingua franca

[Pangu]

It's hard to make predictions, particularly about the future. Characters have been extremely resilient, but that doesn't mean their general use is guaranteed forever. I think that--even more so than pronunciation features (such as tones)--they are the major obstacle to the acceptance of Chinese as a true global lingua franca.

Perhaps, but also perhaps not. As you have said yourself, it is difficult to make predictions about the future.

What makes a language the lingua franca is the country that uses it, namely how wealthy and military powerful it is. Whether how "easy" the language is to learn by most people obviously plays a role but a distance second to the ones mentioned earlier.

Whether in terms or pronunciation, grammar or logic behind the written script, English is far from being the easiest. Yet somehow it is the lingua franca today. This is due to two centuries of first British then American dominance over the world. Prior to English, it was French, and French was not "easier" than English to learn either.

Prior to the late 1800's, Chinese was in fact the lingua franca of the Sinosphere. Even when East Asian nations communicate with each other, they used Chinese. A common example would be the letter written by Kublai Khan to the king of Japan at that time. One interesting note about this letter is that Chinese remained the lingua franca after China was conquered by the Mongols.

So until a more dominant foreign power entered East Asia, Chinese was already the lingua franca for thousands of years. So why is it unlikely that it become the lingua franca again assuming China has the military and economical might to back it up?

IMHO, the true obstacle of Chinese being the next lingua franca is not the language itself, it's how to dethrone United States as the global dominant power.

[linguoboy]

What makes a language the lingua franca is the country that uses it, namely how wealthy and military powerful it is. Whether how "easy" the language is to learn by most people obviously plays a role but a distance second to the ones mentioned earlier.

This is clearly true historically, but whether it will continue to be valid in the future is another question. (Projecting past trends indefinitely into the future is only one way to get your predictions wrong.)

So until a more dominant foreign power entered East Asia, Chinese was already the lingua franca for thousands of years. So why is it unlikely that it become the lingua franca again assuming China has the military and economical might to back it up?

When China originally became the lingua franca, the languages of its neighbours were unwritten. They imported the language along with the writing system, and the former shared in the prestige of the latter. Now that connexion has been broken once and for all.

"Soft power" is as important as old-fashioned military power projection in these matters, if not even more important. As you point out, the superior military organisation of the Mongols (and the Manchus after them) did nothing to advance the adoption of their ethnic languages. And economic might doesn't necessarily translate into linguistic influence. Look at Brazil: An economy twice the size of Spain's or Mexico's, but where is Portuguese in the list of second languages learned?

IMHO, the true obstacle of Chinese being the next lingua franca is not the language itself, it's how to dethrone United States as the global dominant power.

Really, there are several obstacles. Some are socioeconomic, but there are linguistic barriers as well, chief among them the writing system.

The difficulty of learning languages correlates to how greatly they diverge from your native language(s). But the difficulty of a writing system is independent of any particular linguistic features. Chinese children take no longer than anyone to learn to speak Chinese; learning to read and write it, however, is another matter altogether.

[OldBoring]

Also, the neighbours who are more influenced culturally by China (Korea, Japan, Vietnam) don't love China very much...

[IpseDixit]

Am I the only one who thinks the claims that "Mandarin is going to be next lingua franca" are a bit overestimated? I mean, I'm not saying that it would be impossible, but I wouldn't even say it's a definite thing (regardless of the writing system).

I'm obviously no expert but here's what I think:

China's success is based on a "communist" dictatorship that can ignore workers' rights, and history teaches us that dictatorships are not ever-lasting, yeah communist dictatorships tend to last longer than say the fascist ones, but they're still not eternal.

Another factor for the Chinese success is this very liberal global economy that allows China (and other countries) to export very cheap goods all around the world and thus creates an unfair competition, and I don't see any reasons why Western govs might not want to take actions against that in the future.

Furthermore I would say that it's not only the economic and military power that makes a language a lingua franca. There's also education. Right now English is the most important language in education (a bit like Latin in the past), especially in science and technology, and we all know how important those two fields are in our world.

Finally I really doubt that the USA will step down so easily from its position. I would expect some kind of strong reaction/counterattack (I mean methaphorically) if China was about to take its place...

[linguoboy]

Another factor for the Chinese success is this very liberal global economy that allows China (and other countries) to export very cheap goods all around the world and thus creates an unfair competition, and I don't see any reasons why Western govs might not want to take actions against that in the future.

But it's Western governments which pushed economic liberalisation on China in the first place.

China's days as workshop to the world are limited. Already average wages are three times what they were ten years ago and projected to grow another 11% in the coming year. Meanwhile, the working-age population has begun shrinking for the first time since statistics have been kept. These days, if you want really cheap labour, it's Burma or Indonesia.

Furthermore I would say that it's not only the economic and military power that makes a language a lingua franca. There's also education. Right now English is the most important language in education (a bit like Latin in the past), especially in science and technology, and we all know how important those two fields are in our world.

But how did that come to be? It was the dynamism of the USA and--in particular--its university system, which has attracted top talent from around the globe. But the USA has become more restrictive about who it lets into the country while other countries (especially in the Gulf) are copying the most successful aspect of its educational system. And that's before we take into account disruptive technologies which may completely upend how higher education works.

Speaking of technology, that to me is the biggest wild card in this whole discussion. The reason for lingua francas is that languages are difficult to learn. But translation technology is immensely more sophisticated than it was even a decade ago and getting better. It's not inconceivable that a day will come where there's no real reason to learn a foreign language in order to communicate with others around you. What will that mean for the future of linguistic interchange? We really can't say because we have no precedent to draw from.

[Pangu]

Am I the only one who thinks the claims that "Mandarin is going to be next lingua franca" are a bit overestimated? I mean, I'm not saying that it would be impossible, but I wouldn't even say it's a definite thing (regardless of the writing system).

You are definitely not the only one.

So far linguoboy and I are NOT saying Mandarin WILL be the next lingua franca. We were merely discussing IF Mandarin was to be the next lingua franca, what kind of obstacles it would have, and we disagree on what the main obstacle would be.

IMO, English is already too deeply entrenched in our modern society for any other language to easily replace it as the lingua franca. So for any language to replace it, something extreme must happen to first dethrone the United States as the world dominant power.

[Yasna]

I think a far more interesting question is whether or not Mandarin will (again) become the lingua franca of East Asia in the coming decades.

[Pangu]

I think a far more interesting question is whether or not Mandarin will (again) become the lingua franca of East Asia in the coming decades.

Not as long as US is still the dominant world power.

[linguoboy]

I think a far more interesting question is whether or not Mandarin will (again) become the lingua franca of East Asia in the coming decades.

Not as long as US is still the dominant world power.

And not until China figures out how to project soft power better. Right now, direct antagonism plays too large a role in its foreign policy, whether it's stirring up nationalistic fervour over Japanese war atrocities or forcing a confrontation over the Spratleys.

[Levike]

The problem is that, at least here, Chinese doesn't have any prestige at all.
The general view is that it's either funny or ugly.

And then there's also the mentality about the Chinese
that they are somewhat lower class people and that everything from China has no value.

It just doesn't have a good image, and because of that I doubt it'll become important.
At least here, there's no chance.

[IpseDixit]

Don't take it personally but this is so idiotic that I don't even know where to begin... But I'll try anyway:

The problem is that, at least here, Chinese doesn't have any prestige at all.
The general view is that it's either funny or ugly.

Prestige is something that you create, it's not a God-given gift. Do you think that English is the lingua franca because it's "prestigious" or that it's prestigious because it's the lingua franca?

And in any case how a language sounds is irrelevant to its status of lingua franca, as a rule of thumb what counts is the political, military and economic power and its status in education.

If most of the scientific publications were written in Mandarin, do you really think you wouldn't be studying it just because it's a "funny/ugly" language?

And then there's also the mentality about the Chinese
that they are somewhat lower class people and that everything from China has no value.

a) that's quite irrelevant. b) prejudices change and go away.

It just doesn't have a good image, and because of that I doubt it'll become important.
At least here, there's no chance.

Your reasoning is really twisted. I mean, you must be really deluded if you seriously believe that it's the image we have of a language the key factor to accepting it as the lingua franca.

AFAIK English itself wasn't that prestigious two centuries ago if compared with other languages such as French, Italian, German and Latin... It wasn't really on top of the list of languages people used to learn.

[linguoboy]

And then there's also the mentality about the Chinese that they are somewhat lower class people and that everything from China has no value.

The image of Japan was not very positive either in the USA shortly after the last World War. "Made in Japan" was synonymous with "cheap crap". Then in the 80s, all people could talk about was how Japan was beating the West at its own game. Property prices in Tokyo were the highest anywhere in the world and "made in Japan" came to connote "precision engineering". Suddenly thousands of people were learning Japanese and several times that number were reading books of Japanese philosophy and business methods.

[Levike]

@Linguoboy: Yes, we can't exclude that one.

Don't take it personally but this is so idiotic that I don't even know where to begin...

Hey, I already pointed out that this is the situation here.

Don't forget, we're the country that still builds walls so separate X from Y.

[IpseDixit]

Don't take it personally but this is so idiotic that I don't even know where to begin...

Hey, I already pointed out that this is the situation here.

Don't forget, we're the country that still builds walls so separate X from Y.

But what people think of a language is largely irrelevant. I would say that most people in "Latin Europe" and Latin America (and probably many other regions in the world as well) aren't that fond of English at all, yet it's still the international language as of today.

I added a few more things in the previous post btw.

[IpseDixit]

Anyway this thread is making me want to learn a few basic characters

[mōdgethanc]

Without even getting into economics (growth rates approaching 10% clearly can't last forever), Chinese will never be the Global Lingua Franca for a number of reasons:

- English already is
- it's not Indo-European
- it uses a complicated script
- China will always have bad PR unless it changes its system of government
- English already is
- English already is

Japanese was a fad in the 80s and 90s, but now is almost the sole preserve of weeaboos. The USSR was without a doubt the second most powerful country in the world for half a century and Russian never caught on. Clearly there are other factors involved than GDP and masturbatory odes by IR scholars.

[Levike]

Oh, and one more thing.

English is geographically widespread in Australia, North America and the UK.
And some African countries.

While Chinese is ... well in China and in little tiny places nearby it.
It's just too isolated for a big chunk of the world.

[OldBoring]

(growth rates approaching 10% clearly can't last forever)

I remember that last year, Chinese news were already reporting a growing rate of "only" 6%. Not sure now.

- English Galician already is
[...]
- English Galician already is
- English Galician already is

The USSR was without a doubt the second most powerful country in the world for half a century and Russian never caught on.

But it's the lingua franca (first language in some cases) of the countries of ex-USRR. It also used to be an important foreign language in communist countries, like North Korea, Mao era China, and Northern Vietnam in the past.

Asking why Chinese is not the global lingua franca, is a bit like asking why German is not the EU's lingua franca.

[Itikar]

But what people think of a language is largely irrelevant. I would say that most people in "Latin Europe" and Latin America (and probably many other regions in the world as well) aren't that fond of English at all, yet it's still the international language as of today.

I think we merely tolerate it because it has got many Latin loans.

In general I too agree with those who say that for Mandarin to become more important as a global lingua franca it is necessary that the U.S. will stop being the dominant global superpower.

According to a politologist whom I follow on his blog the beginning of 2014 could have started to create a new bipolarity: Russia-China vs. U.S.

We'll see what happens.

But it's the lingua franca (first language in some cases) of the countries of ex-USRR. It also used to be an important foreign language in communist countries, like North Korea, Mao era China, and Northern Vietnam in the past.

To be honest I see Russian becoming more and more important in all Europe as time passes and without being forced or promoted by any authority.

30 years ago even at university level the language was studied by a very limited group of people, mostly communists. Now I meet more and more people it is taught in a lot of universities and even in some high schools!

I think also that the development of RuNet and of the Chinese internet could benefit greatly the rise in prestige of both languages, because they would become more useful.

As a final note I really doubt that Europeans or Americans will ever use Mandarin to speak among them even if China would replace the role of the U.S.
But I guess that for East Asians this is an entirely different story and I really wonder what can happen in the future.
The few East Asians whom I have met did not seem to me too fond of English.

[mōdgethanc]

English Galician already is

Touché.

But it's the lingua franca (first language in some cases) of the countries of ex-USRR. It also used to be an important foreign language in communist countries, like North Korea, Mao era China, and Northern Vietnam in the past.

Yeah, and it never became the global lingua franca, and neither will Chinese.