Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

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Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Yes
3
13%
No
20
87%
 
Total votes: 23

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Lur
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Lur » 2012-08-28, 8:25

I think Spain was actually never in "good shape" as it was growing on a model destined to fail further down the line. And it did.
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Hoogstwaarschijnlijk » 2012-09-06, 12:38

Where's the 'I don't know'-option?


Ludwig Whitby wrote:Not to mention how annoying it sounds. The Southern countries are on the verge of bankruptcy, people are losing their jobs, strikes, protests and rioting all over the country, Greece has gone bust and so on. What's happened in Northern Europe? Nothing much, they went from ''filthy rich'' to ''somewhat less filthy rich''.

Ron, honestly, you sound like a spoiled brat.


Nothing much?! It may be worse in southern countries, but that doesn't mean that nothing has changed here! So many people are losing their jobs here, personally I just know 1 person from my study who has a proper job. All the others don't have a job, or only a very small one. And okay, that are persons from 25 year old or so, obviously it's worse for young people, but a lot of other people are losing their jobs as well. And not everyone gets money when they don't have a job, and a lot of them are in serious financial problems and aren't even able to buy enough food anymore, as Ron mentioned. You can't just say: oh it's so bad in Southern countries so nothing's wrong in Northern Europe. It just doesn't work that way.

I don't even know who to blaim. I don't think it's a countries fault and certainly not a whole population's fault. But what's obvious is that it's one complicated big mess and that for a normal person it's quite impossible to say if the Euro is going to survive this or not.
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Spaigelploatje
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Spaigelploatje » 2012-09-14, 10:41

Ludwig Whitby wrote:Not to mention how annoying it sounds. The Southern countries are on the verge of bankruptcy, people are losing their jobs, strikes, protests and rioting all over the country, Greece has gone bust and so on. What's happened in Northern Europe? Nothing much, they went from ''filthy rich'' to ''somewhat less filthy rich''.

Ron, honestly, you sound like a spoiled brat.

I don't think that an extremely rich Norwegian has any say in this.
Average gross salary 38,100 NOK / $6909, monthly (May 2011)[2]

You should not forget that the Netherlands have voted against the EU many times, but our political fatso's found it right to do just what we didn't want to. We didn't want the EU constitution. Well, the Lisbon treaty was never asked to us because we wouldn't have accepted that. And that was back in 2004/2005.
I'm pretty sure if we had a referendum about the guilder/euro in 1999 or 2000 we'd have kept the guilder, our banknotes were the most beautiful in the world anyway, especially the 'lighthouse' and 'sunflower'. We have lost a lot of money by going to the Euro because our guilder was rated 10-20% too low.

Also the amount of cheap EU immigrants coming here taking jobs from the uneducated is bad. All our uneducated people need socia funding which is something we pay for. Also the wage these foreigners is being spent in other countries instead of ours, so our local stores are losing money as well. There are many people between 40-65 losing their jobs because of this, many youngsters who don't have the capability to study won't find a job.. They all need public funding, while money is leaving our country..
And for the people who did study the amount of real unlimited contracts is low. Many times it's just a year contract for a company..

And well, the problem with Southern Europe is just another downer for us. Also it's mainly the fault of the banks and the ordinary man didn't have anything to do with the banks. I think the banks should take much more blame and they should help those with problems now.

So what happened in northern continental Europe? We were effed by our politicians, while anti-EU politicians aren't a good choice either.. We lost a lot of jobs, a lot of money leaves our country and goes to Poland etc. Pretty high unemployment among youngsters.

Why do you think many people here are looking at Norway and Switzerland? Being two relative small (in terms of inhabitants) successful countries outside the EU, Euro and other stuff? And saying: We want that too!

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Johanna
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Johanna » 2012-09-14, 11:27

Ludwig's Serbian though, so he definitely has a say in it ;)

Norway has a similar problem with immigrants coming in and "taking" the jobs for the young and the uneducated, difference is, most of those immigrants are form other Nordic countries, especially Sweden. And both Swedes and Norwegians living on Østlandet often buy food and most other stuff in Sweden since it's a lot cheaper there, so it's the same deal as with those immigrants you're talking about and local shops and supermarkets, only it's the locals too.

And the gross salary may be high in Norway, but it's expensive as hell to live there.
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Hoogstwaarschijnlijk » 2012-09-14, 14:04

Johanna wrote:And the gross salary may be high in Norway, but it's expensive as hell to live there.

Yeah, I can imagine that... But wow, avarage 6000, that's 5000 euro. My income being €0,00 that seems quite a lot to me :wink: But could you tell how much a house per month would be in Norway, do you know anything about that? Because if a flat with three rooms is 3000 euro per month and the food is obviously very expensive, then it doesn't say much, obviously. An amount of a salary doesn't say anything of course when you don't take in account the costs of living somewhere.

But yeah, Norway and Switzerland have this image of 'the only countries who escaped the EU', but even they aren't immune. As for the Netherlands, we have never really been in the position to become the country who isn't a part of the EU, because we need to depend on our neighbouring countries so much, being an export country and stuff like that. We can't survive on our own.
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby TeneReef » 2012-09-14, 14:17

Leviwosc wrote:
The people of the Netherlands do pay for this crisis, together with the Germans and other peoples. These people are losing more and more because the southern nations have spent more money the last decades than they actually had!

But they spent money on buying things from you, Northern countries,
Greece was buying weapons from Germany like crazy.

EU needs to be organized like the USA financially, otherwise there's no real EU, it's just a cosmetic union. If Alabama buys something from California, it's not export from California and import into Alabama, but federal traveling of goods.

:ohwell: And yes, federal US government takes money from rich states like California to encourage the progress of poorer states like Alabama or Mississippi.

It does not take a rocket science to know this: if you want union/family, you support your family.
Here in Istria, only 10% of money is kept in Istria, 90% of Istrian money goes to the government which then gives money to the poor regions like Dalmatia. The same thing happens in Belgium, where Flemish money goes to Valonia, and in Germany where the money from Bavaria goes to Eastern Germany (Oberbayern alone is richer than Norway, and it has 5 million people living there, like in Norway).

Why Greece bought weapons more than needed from Germany is beyond me, since both Greece and Turkey are in NATO. :ohwell:

EU needs to be a fiscal union, and with the same foreign policy, and with one single army.

Even India is run more efficiently than EU, the current format of EU is EBU European bureaucratic/banking system union, and not real union.

Furthermore, it was not Southern people who spent too much, but the banks of their countries.
It is the crises of the banking sector, and not the crisis of the inhabitants debt. (if personal debt was to be calculated, than even Northern countries would be in crisis...most Norwegians have a large personal debt, they spent more money than they earn, and they have multiple mortgages to pay)...

Here in Croatia, there is no banking crisis because all banks are owned by Germans and Austrians.
There is not a single Croatian bank which is Croatian.
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby TeneReef » 2012-09-14, 14:55

Hoogstwaarschijnlijk wrote:
Johanna wrote:And the gross salary may be high in Norway, but it's expensive as hell to live there.

Yeah, I can imagine that... But wow, avarage 6000, that's 5000 euro. My income being €0,00 that seems quite a lot to me :wink: But could you tell how much a house per month would be in Norway, do you know anything about that? Because if a flat with three rooms is 3000 euro per month and the food is obviously very expensive, then it doesn't say much, obviously. An amount of a salary doesn't say anything of course when you don't take in account the costs of living somewhere.

But yeah, Norway and Switzerland have this image of 'the only countries who escaped the EU', but even they aren't immune. As for the Netherlands, we have never really been in the position to become the country who isn't a part of the EU, because we need to depend on our neighbouring countries so much, being an export country and stuff like that. We can't survive on our own.


Norwegian standard is not really high because the oil money is not spent (for improving infrastructure, hospitals, roads, trains) but it's kept for future generations. And don't forget that the Norwegian government will tax you everything, 40% of your gross income will go to the government.

Compare Stuttgart (DE) and Bergen (NO), for example:

Consumer Prices in Bergen are 64.77% higher than in Stuttgart
Consumer Prices Including Rent in Bergen are 69.37% higher than in Stuttgart
Rent Prices in Bergen are 95.98% higher than in Stuttgart
Restaurant Prices in Bergen are 103.87% higher than in Stuttgart
Groceries Prices in Bergen are 80.81% higher than in Stuttgart
Local Purchasing Power in Bergen is 31.50% lower than in Stuttgart

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/co ... ty2=Bergen


Furthermore,

in Stuttgart:
Median Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) 2,500.00 €
Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre 1,300.00 €
so, you can live on 1,200 € after you've paid a monthly part of the mortage


in Bergen:
Median Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) 2,900.35 €
Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre 4,164.68 €
Oops, Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment is much higher than the average income
---
Antwerp (BE) vs Bergen (NO)
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/co ... rrency=EUR

Consumer Prices in Antwerp are 22.85% lower than in Bergen
Consumer Prices Including Rent in Antwerp are 24.65% lower than in Bergen
Rent Prices in Antwerp are 33.38% lower than in Bergen
Restaurant Prices in Antwerp are 28.01% lower than in Bergen
Groceries Prices in Antwerp are 34.55% lower than in Bergen
Local Purchasing Power in Antwerp is 0.48% lower than in Bergen


in Antwerp:
Median Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) 2,175.00 €
Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre 1,250.00 €
so, you can live on 925 € after you've paid a monthly part of the mortage


in Bergen:
Median Monthly Disposable Salary (After Tax) 2,900.35 €
Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment Outside of Centre 4,164.68 €
Oops, Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment is much higher than the average income
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Spaigelploatje
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Spaigelploatje » 2012-09-14, 15:53

Income tax varies in the netherlands, itsprogressive.. 33% below 18k gross annually, 42% between 18k and 50k. 52% between 50k and 150k. 60% on everything above 150k
You can't compare Antwerp Belgium with the Netherlands. There's a reason why many Dutch emigrate to Belgium and build huge houses.
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Hoogstwaarschijnlijk » 2012-09-15, 10:21

TeneReef wrote:
Oops, Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment is much higher than the average income

Oops, Price per Square Meter to Buy Apartment is much higher than the average income


I don't really understand what you're trying to say with this, I don't think the avarage family is able to buy a house or an apartment, actually. At least not in a city, where prizes are very high (I guess that's the same in most countries...). But okay, at least this shows that living in Norway is quite expensive :wink:

As for the 'treat EU as a family'-story, the problem there would be that we don't see each other as a family. We're all seperate countries, we feel like seperate countries, so it just doesn't feel right to give money to some country far away where you don't feel any connection with.
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TeneReef
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby TeneReef » 2012-09-15, 11:30

I guess you're right. Croatia has been able to feel the hostility even before entering the Union.
As a general rule, these are are friends (who've been supporting us) and ''enemies'' (who've been blackmailing us) [in this chart, you should read ''the politicians of these countries rather than common people'']

friends of Croatia: Germany, Austria, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Portugal
friends with a love and hate relationship: Italy, Slovenia
enemies: UK, Netherlands

The UK and the Netherlands imposed numerous conditions and limitations, bordering with blackmailing, which were never imposed on Bulgaria or Romania, for example. And this made people in Croatia upset. Some have traced the UK hate toward Croatia to the fact that many Croatian immigrants in Argentina fought in the Falkland war against the Royal army. :ohwell:

And UK should not really be upset with potential Croatian immigrants, since it's not really attractive for Croatians (unless they want to marry some rich Briton like Slavica Radić Ecclestone did :P ) when there's Bavaria just a 6 hour drive away. :P
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Saim » 2012-09-15, 13:37

TeneReef wrote:friends of Croatia: Germany, Austria, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Portugal

enemies of Serbia: Germany, Austria, Hungary... I'm beginning to see a correlation here :P

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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby TeneReef » 2012-09-15, 14:16

I don't know. I guess it has to do with that Austria-Hungary thing which ceased in 1918.
My county was a part of Austrian Littoral :P

Image


But for practical reasons, I would consider these countries as de jure friends of Croatia, since we can enter them without a passport (that is, only Croatian identity card is needed): Slovenia, Hungary, Italy, Bosnia&Herzegovina and Montenegro. :)

Since my passport is not valid anymore, and a new EU passport will be introduced next year, my traveling options will be limited to those countries for the time being. :hmm: I'm thinking of Sardinia and Montenegro, since I haven't been there yet.
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Re: Will the Euro collapse in 2012?

Postby Oleksij » 2012-10-01, 16:17

Right-inclined people in Ukraine usually have a really positive and brotherlike opinion of Croatia (since the historical Croatia-Serbia antagonism bears resemblance to the Ukraine-Russia one). It's also to an extent based on the (probably pseudo-scientific) belief in the genetic closeness between Ukrainians - especially those inhabiting Western Ukraine, supposedly descended from White Croats and Croatians (another argument is linguistic, since Ukrainian and some Croatian dialects share the ikavica phenomenon and certain other traits - Slavic month names, a larger number of Slavic cognates than with other South Slavic languages, etc.). Another Slavophile argument is the existence of a Rusyn minority (which are mostly considered an offshoot of Ukrainians in Ukraine) in Croatia, and for Western Ukraine (Galicia, Bukovina and Transcarpathia) - the common Habsburg history.

Communist propaganda in the Soviet Union portrayed all predominantly Catholic Slavic nations broadly as 'enemies of socialism' and 'Western spies in the socialist family'.
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